Climate Action Teams, Modelling Exercise for Chile Progress Report
Categoría
MitigaciónTema
VariosInstitución Mandante / financista
Environmental Defense FundInvestigadores
Luis Cifuentes, Horacio Gilabert, Francisco Meza, Juan Pablo Montero, Sebastian Vicuña, Catalina Marinkovic, Andrés Pica, Diego González, Valentina Jara, Alvaro Lorca, Raúl Urtubia, José Miguel Valdés, Viviana Cerda-Gho, Catalina VelosoFecha de termino
Diciembre 2021Objetivos del estudio / proyecto
- Develop GHG emission models that cover all the sectors identified at the GHG National Inventories.
- Develop GHG emission models that cover all the sectors identified at the GHG National Inventories.
- Analyze mitigation actions considering the ones evaluated for the Chilean NDC and additional.
- Analyze the GHG emission pathways under different scenarios (mitigation strategies) and futures (exogenous conditions).
- Check the fulfillment of the Chilean NDC goals under each scenario and future
Resumen
The Climate Action Teams (CAT) initiative is a mechanism that supports international resource transfers for climate mitigation. CAT operates through government-to-government agreements based on verified mitigation outcomes beyond NDC commitments in one country (the host) in exchange for financial and technological support from one or more countries (the partners) that form part of the ‘Climate Team’. The mitigation outcomes are ‘credited’ to the partner countries and can potentially contribute to their NDC commitments.
As part of the technical work in Chile a modelling team from the Global Change Center of the Catholic University of Chile has built open-access models to explore mitigation opportunities beyond Chile’s NDC. This report presents the results of the developed models and the analyzed mitigation scenarios.As part of the technical work in Chile a modelling team from the Global Change Center of the Catholic University of Chile has built open-access models to explore mitigation opportunities beyond Chile’s NDC. This report presents the results of the developed models and the analyzed mitigation scenarios.A prospective emissions model was developed that covers all sectors included in the National GHG Inventory (Energy, including electricity generation and the energy demand sectors – transport, industry and mining, and buildings-; waste; IPPU; agriculture and LULUCF)
The modeling was carried out based on the combination of scenarios and futures, where these two concepts are defined as follows:The modeling was carried out based on the combination of scenarios and futures, where these two concepts are defined as follows:
● Futures: They represent a trajectory of exogenous parameters that represent a possible set of conditions that could facilitate (or hinder) the mitigation strategies.
● Mitigation scenarios: They represent different mitigation strategies implemented at a national level, each strategy considers a set of mitigation measures and their specific level of implementation.The total aggregated emissions for the Agriculture, Energy, IPPU, Transport and Waste sectors for the three mitigation scenarios for the reference future, where the CP and IM scenarios shows an increase on the emissions by 2030, and the only scenario that achieves an absolute decrease on the emissions is the AM Scenario, also is the only scenario that has its peak of emissions before 2025. the trajectories of the cumulated emissions during the 2020-2030 shown that the IM scenario goes over, for a small margin, over the goal budget, while the AM scenario overachieve the goal by some margin.
In the NDC Chile commits to a GHG emission budget not exceeding 1,100 MMton CO2eq between 2020 and 2030, with a GHG emissions maximum (peak) by 2025, and a GHG emissions level of 95 MMton CO2eq by 2030 (Gobierno de Chile, 2020). From Figure 0-4 it can be observed that only in the AM, that is, where additional measures to the Chilean NDC are considered, the commitment to emit below 1,100 MMTon CO2eq between 2020 and 2030 is fulfilled. An analysis of GHG emissions in 2030 (Figure 0-5) shows something very similar where only in the AM scenario and under the three different futures the target of emitting 95 MM tons CO2eq in 2030 is achieved.
For the study of mitigation costs, each of the mitigation actions was characterized by its abatement potential and the average cost of mitigation of one tCO2eq. The following definitions were used:For the study of mitigation costs, each of the mitigation actions was characterized by its abatement potential and the average cost of mitigation of one tCO2eq. The following definitions were used:
▪ Mitigation potential: Corresponds to the difference of emissions between the CP scenario and a scenario with only the mitigation action, considering the direct impact on emissions (in the same sector as the mitigation action is implemented) and the indirect impact in emissions of other sectors (e.g., caused by changes6on electricity or wood demand). This difference applies only to the period 2020-2030 which coincides with the NDC carbon budget commitment.
▪ Average cost of mitigation: Correspond to the discounted costs of investments, operating costs, and savings, divided by the total mitigation potential on the period 2020-2050. It is important to notice that the average cost has a different horizon for its calculation than the abatement potential. This corresponds to a methodological decision to better represent the real average costs of mitigation action where the cost and the GHG reductions don’t occur at the same time. For example, this helps a better evaluation of an action with an important investment and mitigation that occurs in the future.
The current work and results represent a first step which was ambitious to develop and integrate a prospective model for the GHG emissions in Chile, which focus on the near-term emissions, but which extends with projections to the midcentury. Further work is needed in this model to analyse other paths ot actions considering both new actions and new level of ambitious in the current actions, also the level of integration of the models can be improved aswell as the generation of newThe current work and results represent a first step which was ambitious to develop and integrate a prospective model for the GHG emissions in Chile, which focus on the near-term emissions, but which extends with projections to the midcentury. Further work is needed in this model to analyse other paths ot actions considering both new actions and new level of ambitious in the current actions, also the level of integration of the models can be improved aswell as the generation of new8mitigation scenarios which could combine diferente actions packages. During the presentations of the results of the current work to Climate Action Teams partners and stakeholders in Chile some comments were made that could enable better results.Finally, it is relevant to consider these results as a preliminary approximation of the mitigation potential and its costs, since the implementation of any of the actions presented may require a whole set of analyses to determine a more accurate estimate. Nevertheless, some of the results are of particular interest and the structure of the model can be used for some preliminary investigations. For example, in the baseline scenario, 62 MtCO2e are estimated to be available beyond the budget commitment. Preliminary results from new runs based on different carbon prices suggest that 70% of the 62 MtCO2e could be obtained at a marginal cost of less than USD 50/tCO2e. In addition, estimates of the capital cost required to achieve this 70% is about USD 2.8 billion.